El Niño is a well-studied climatic phenomenon that influences weather in various parts of the world
Experts predict, with a good degree of certainty, that it should return in the second half of 2026. However, it is still too early to say for sure whether it will be strong, very strong, or just moderate.
Many recent news reports speak of a “super El Niño” with devastating droughts in the Amazon or historic floods in the South, but these claims mix proven facts with speculation.
Let’s better understand what is based on scientific evidence and what is still guesswork.
El Niño occurs when the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean, in the equatorial region of the central-eastern part of the ocean, become warmer than normal.
It is part of a larger cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The opposite is La Niña, when these same waters cool down.
This warming alters winds, ocean currents, and the distribution of rainfall and temperatures across the planet.
The name “El Niño” originated with Peruvian and Ecuadorian fishermen in the 19th century.
They noticed that around Christmas, the waters warmed so much that the fish disappeared, harming fishing.
Therefore, they called the event “El Niño,” in reference to the Christ Child.
Decades later, scientists like Gilbert Walker discovered that the phenomenon was linked to changes in atmospheric pressure and winds in the Pacific.
From the 1980s onwards, especially after the strong El Niño of 1982-83, studies deepened.
Today, agencies like NOAA in the United States monitor the ocean with precision.
According to them, there is about a 60% chance that El Niño will begin between May and July 2026, and more than a 90% probability starting in the spring, in September.
In other words, it’s almost certain that it will form in the second half of the year.
What cannot yet be predicted with confidence is its intensity: currently, the chances of it being strong or very strong are around 25% each.
Scientific models can predict the development of the phenomenon a few months in advance and estimate its main effects.
More detailed predictions, however, only become reliable one to three months beforehand.
Therefore, talking now about extreme droughts or catastrophic floods for 2026-2027 is still premature and, in many cases, sensationalist.
El Niño does not directly cause disasters.
It only increases or decreases the probability of extreme events.
In Brazil, for example, it usually brings more rain to the South and the coast of Peru and Ecuador, while leaving the Amazon and Northeast drier.
It also favors heat waves in the center of the country and reduces the number of hurricanes in the North Atlantic.
Global temperatures tend to rise during these periods.
History shows that major droughts in the Amazon have coincided with strong El Niño events in years such as 1877-79, 1983, 1998, 2015-16, and 2023-24. But not all droughts are caused by El Niño.
In 1963, 2005, and 2012, for example, other factors, such as the warming of the North Atlantic waters, played an important role.
Similarly, floods in the South can occur even without it, although the phenomenon increases the chances.
The impacts depend not only on the strength of El Niño, but also on the vulnerability of people and preventive measures.
Fires in the Amazon and Pantanal in 2023-2024, for example, were aggravated by the combination of drought, heat, and dry vegetation.
The death of hundreds of river dolphins in the Amazon was also linked to thermal stress.
In Rio Grande do Sul, severe floods have occurred recently, but the preparedness of cities and support for the population are fundamental to reducing damage.
For the period 2026-2027, it is important to follow updates from reliable institutions.
Seasonal forecasts for the coming months do not yet show a clear influence of El Niño on rainfall in Brazil.
Furthermore, the intensity of the phenomenon does not always determine the severity of the effects: stronger episodes tend to amplify patterns, but do not guarantee catastrophes.
In short, science offers solid tools for monitoring and preparation.
What is lacking is separating what already has a reliable basis from what is mere speculation.
Maintaining continuous monitoring, updating old studies considering climate change, and investing in prevention are the best ways to deal with the upcoming El Niño.
In this way, we can transform knowledge into actions that protect the population and the environment.
Published in 05/21/2026 22h04
Text adapted by AI (Grok) and translated via Google API in the English version. Images from public image libraries or credits in the caption. Information about DOI, author and institution can be found in the body of the article.
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