{"id":3815,"date":"2026-05-23T14:14:12","date_gmt":"2026-05-23T14:14:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/terrarara.com.br\/en\/?page_id=3815"},"modified":"2026-05-23T14:14:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-23T14:14:12","slug":"risco-de-um-super-el-ni\u00c3\u00b1o-hist\u00c3\u00b3rico-em-2026","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/terrarara.com.br\/en\/?page_id=3815","title":{"rendered":"Risk of a historic super El Ei\u00f1o in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/vendedoradesonhos.com.br\/upload\/1\/sites\/26\/img_42042_1200.jpg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:100%\"><figcaption>The risk of an exceptionally strong to extreme El Ni\u00c3\u00b1o is growing | NASA<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><hr><\/p><p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\r\n\t<a href='http:\/\/terrarara.com.br\/en\"s=el nino'>#El Nino<\/a><\/p><p><\/p><p>\r\n\t<!-- audio --><\/p><p>\r\n<button onclick=\"this.nextElementSibling.play()\" style=\"padding:12px 25px; font-size:18px; border:none; border-radius:8px; cursor:pointer;\">Listen<\/button><audio src=\"https:\/\/vendedoradesonhos.com.br\/audios\/42042-eng.mp3\" preload=\"none\"><\/audio><\/p><p>\r\n\t<strong>The world may be heading towards one of the most intense climate events of the last 150 years<\/strong><\/p><p> The most recent projections from leading climate models indicate that El Nino, the phenomenon characterized by the abnormal warming of the waters of the Equatorial Pacific, should strengthen extraordinarily throughout 2026, with the possibility of reaching record levels.\r\n<\/p><p>\r\nExperts from MetSul Meteorologia and international institutions are closely monitoring the rapid warming of the Pacific waters.<\/p><p>\r\nModels such as the European ECMWF and the North American CFS, from NOAA, show temperature anomalies in the Ni\u00c3\u00b1o 3.4 region that could reach +3\u00c2\u00b0C or more by the end of the year.<\/p><p>\r\nTo give an idea, the Super El Ninos of 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 recorded peaks around +2.7C to +2.8C.<\/p><p>\r\nThe current scenario suggests something even stronger, possibly comparable to the extreme events observed since the 1870s.\r\n<\/p><p>\r\nA worrying sign is the accumulated heat below the ocean&#8217;s surface.<\/p><p>\r\nIn some areas, subsurface temperatures have reached up to 8\u00c2\u00b0C above average.<\/p><p>\r\nThis reservoir of thermal energy acts as fuel: when it rises to the surface layers, it accelerates the warming of the sea.<\/p><p>\r\nFurthermore, meteorologists are observing the formation of Kelvin waves, which transport this warm water towards South America.\r\n<\/p><p>\r\nAnother factor that could accelerate the phenomenon is a rare event called a &#8220;Westerly Wind Burst&#8221; (WWB).<\/p><p>\r\nNormally, trade winds blow from east to west, pushing warm waters towards Asia.<\/p><p>\r\nWhen strong gusts of wind occur in the opposite direction, they weaken this pattern, displace warm waters towards the central and eastern Pacific, and favor the development of El Nino.<\/p><p>\r\nModels indicate that a high-intensity episode should occur in the coming days, further increasing the risk of an extreme event.\r\n<\/p><p>\r\nScientists note that El Nino may establish itself earlier than usual, possibly between the end of autumn and the beginning of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.<\/p><p>\r\nThis means that the climatic effects may manifest strongly in the coming months, with a peak predicted for the second half of the year.<\/p><p>\r\nThe phenomenon releases a large amount of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, which tends to raise the average global temperature.<\/p><p>\r\nSome estimate that 2027 has a high probability of being the hottest year on record.\r\n<\/p><p>\r\nIn Brazil, the impacts will be felt differently in each region.<\/p><p>\r\nIn the South, El Nino usually brings more rain, with an increased risk of storms, floods, and overflowing rivers.<\/p><p>\r\nIn the North and Northeast, the trend is for drier and hotter weather, favoring fires in the Amazon and water supply problems in the Northeast.<\/p><p>\r\nAbove-average temperatures are expected in much of the country, especially in the Central-West and Southeast.\r\n<\/p><p>\r\nAlthough the projections are consistent and show high confidence, meteorologists remind us that the climate is complex and adjustments may occur.<\/p><p>\r\nNevertheless, the combination of accumulated ocean heat, favorable winds, and historical model data raises the alert for an event of exceptional magnitude.<\/p><p>\r\nThe planet is already experiencing warmer oceans due to climate change, which could amplify the effects of this Super El Nino.\r\n<\/p><p>\r\nThe warning remains: a phenomenon of this strength can alter rainfall, drought, and temperature patterns across several continents, affecting agriculture, water availability, and the occurrence of extreme events.<\/p><p>\r\nMonitoring updates will be crucial in the coming months so that governments, producers, and society can prepare.<\/p><p>\r\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-media-max-width=\"560\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><br>Risk of a historic super El Nino in 2026<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/ElNino'src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#ElNino<\/a><br><br>The world may be heading towards one of the most intense climate events of the last 150 years<br>Read more:<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DfNEKbqVhD\">https:\/\/t.co\/DfNEKbqVhD<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/6awJGqgOap\">pic.twitter.com\/6awJGqgOap<\/a><\/p>? Rare Earth (@rareearth0) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rareearth0\/status\/2058250939341971943?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 23, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"text-align:right\"><em>Published in 05\/23\/2026 14h14<\/em><\/p>\r\n<hr>\r\n<p style=\"text-align:right\"><em><a href=\"https:\/\/terrarara.com.br\/?page_id=26692\">Portuguese version<\/a><\/em><\/p>\r\n<hr>\r\n\r\n\t\t<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Text adapted by AI (Grok) and translated via Google API in the English version. Images from public image libraries or credits in the caption. Information about DOI, author and institution can be found in the body of the article.<\/p>\r\n\t\t<hr>\r\n\t\t<p>Reference article:<\/p>\r\n\t\t\r\n\t\t\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/metsul.com\/grafico-mostra-por-que-cresce-o-perigo-de-um-super-el-nino-neste-ano\/\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/metsul.com\/grafico-mostra-por-que-cresce-o-perigo-de-um-super-el-nino-neste-ano\/<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>\r\n\r\n<div style=\"position: buttonline;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/vendedoradesonhos.com.br\/rodape_sites.php?arg=42042\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"420px\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe><\/div>\r\n<div style=\"position: buttonline;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/vendedoradesonhos.com.br\/comentario_navegacao.php?arg=42042\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"500px\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe><\/div>\r\n<div style=\"position:absolute; width:40%; height:70px; top:-70px; left:0px;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/vendedoradesonhos.com.br\/oferta_site_esq.php?arg=42042\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"100%\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe><\/div>\r\n<div style=\"position:absolute; width:40%; height:70px; top:-70px; right:0px;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/vendedoradesonhos.com.br\/oferta_site_dir.php?arg=42042\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"100%;\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/vendedoradesonhos.com.br\/oferta_site_centralus.php\" width=\"100%\" height=\"330\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><figcaption>{teste}<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><hr>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":102,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-3815","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/terrarara.com.br\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/3815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/terrarara.com.br\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/terrarara.com.br\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/terrarara.com.br\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/terrarara.com.br\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/terrarara.com.br\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/3815\/revisions"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/terrarara.com.br\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/terrarara.com.br\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}