Risk of a historic super El Eiño in 2026

The risk of an exceptionally strong to extreme El Niño is growing | NASA

#El Nino

The world may be heading towards one of the most intense climate events of the last 150 years

The most recent projections from leading climate models indicate that El Nino, the phenomenon characterized by the abnormal warming of the waters of the Equatorial Pacific, should strengthen extraordinarily throughout 2026, with the possibility of reaching record levels.

Experts from MetSul Meteorologia and international institutions are closely monitoring the rapid warming of the Pacific waters.

Models such as the European ECMWF and the North American CFS, from NOAA, show temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that could reach +3°C or more by the end of the year.

To give an idea, the Super El Ninos of 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 recorded peaks around +2.7C to +2.8C.

The current scenario suggests something even stronger, possibly comparable to the extreme events observed since the 1870s.

A worrying sign is the accumulated heat below the ocean’s surface.

In some areas, subsurface temperatures have reached up to 8°C above average.

This reservoir of thermal energy acts as fuel: when it rises to the surface layers, it accelerates the warming of the sea.

Furthermore, meteorologists are observing the formation of Kelvin waves, which transport this warm water towards South America.

Another factor that could accelerate the phenomenon is a rare event called a “Westerly Wind Burst” (WWB).

Normally, trade winds blow from east to west, pushing warm waters towards Asia.

When strong gusts of wind occur in the opposite direction, they weaken this pattern, displace warm waters towards the central and eastern Pacific, and favor the development of El Nino.

Models indicate that a high-intensity episode should occur in the coming days, further increasing the risk of an extreme event.

Scientists note that El Nino may establish itself earlier than usual, possibly between the end of autumn and the beginning of winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

This means that the climatic effects may manifest strongly in the coming months, with a peak predicted for the second half of the year.

The phenomenon releases a large amount of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, which tends to raise the average global temperature.

Some estimate that 2027 has a high probability of being the hottest year on record.

In Brazil, the impacts will be felt differently in each region.

In the South, El Nino usually brings more rain, with an increased risk of storms, floods, and overflowing rivers.

In the North and Northeast, the trend is for drier and hotter weather, favoring fires in the Amazon and water supply problems in the Northeast.

Above-average temperatures are expected in much of the country, especially in the Central-West and Southeast.

Although the projections are consistent and show high confidence, meteorologists remind us that the climate is complex and adjustments may occur.

Nevertheless, the combination of accumulated ocean heat, favorable winds, and historical model data raises the alert for an event of exceptional magnitude.

The planet is already experiencing warmer oceans due to climate change, which could amplify the effects of this Super El Nino.

The warning remains: a phenomenon of this strength can alter rainfall, drought, and temperature patterns across several continents, affecting agriculture, water availability, and the occurrence of extreme events.

Monitoring updates will be crucial in the coming months so that governments, producers, and society can prepare.

Published in 05/23/2026 14h14

Portuguese version

Text adapted by AI (Grok) and translated via Google API in the English version. Images from public image libraries or credits in the caption. Information about DOI, author and institution can be found in the body of the article.

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