Scientists map hidden fault that could trigger turkey’s next major earthquake

Earthquake

doi.org/10.1130/G52995.1
Credibility: 989
#Earthquake

Turkey is situated in one of the most tectonically active regions on the planet, where plates such as the Eurasian, African, Arabian, and Anatolian constantly collide, generating a long history of devastating earthquakes

One of the most tragic was the Erzincan earthquake in 1939, which caused the death of more than 30,000 people.

Since then, major seismic activity has been progressively shifting westward along the North Anatolian Fault, one of the world’s most dangerous transform faults.

Many experts believe that the next major earthquake will occur directly beneath the Sea of “”Marmara, a part of this fault that has remained silent for over 250 years.

This long period without significant ruptures has allowed a huge amount of energy to accumulate, increasing the risk for one of the country’s most populous areas, including the Istanbul metropolitan region.

Until recently, the detailed structure of this underwater fault remained largely a mystery, what scientists call “invisible,” despite decades of research.

Without a clear map of what happens in the depths, it was difficult to accurately predict where and how a new earthquake might begin.

This new three-dimensional (3D) model of resistivity beneath the North Anatolian fault will help earth scientists more accurately identify areas at risk of major earthquakes. Credit: Institute of Science Tokyo

Now, an international team led by Dr. Yasuo Ogawa, professor emeritus at the Tokyo Institute of Science in Japan, and with the participation of Dr. Tülay Kaya-Eken of Bo?aziçi University in Turkey, has managed to create the first complete three-dimensional model of the subsurface region beneath the Sea of “”Marmara.

The work was published in the journal “Geology” and represents an important advance in understanding this threat.

To carry out this mapping, the researchers analyzed a vast dataset collected by more than 20 magnetotelluric stations.

These instruments record very subtle variations in the Earth’s natural electric and magnetic fields, which are influenced by deep rock structures.

Using advanced three-dimensional inversion techniques, they reconstructed a detailed image of the electrical resistivity of the crust tens of kilometers deep beneath the seabed.

The model revealed a complex scenario: there are zones of low resistivity, indicating the presence of fluids such as water and therefore mechanically weaker, and areas of high resistivity, which are more rigid and locked.

These differences in rock strength create critical boundaries where stress tends to concentrate.

According to the authors, large-magnitude earthquakes are likely to begin at these transitions between weaker and stronger sections of the fault, or at the edges of highly resistive zones.

This discovery helps to clarify the mechanics of the fault and offers more precise tools to estimate where and with what force the next major event may occur.

With more reliable information on the location and potential magnitude of future earthquakes, authorities will be better able to plan disaster prevention, preparedness, and mitigation measures, potentially saving lives and reducing damage in and around Istanbul when the inevitable happens.

Published in 02/17/2026 01h14

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Text adapted by AI (Grok) and translated via Google API in the English version. Images from public image libraries or credits in the caption. Information about DOI, author and institution can be found in the body of the article.

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